# Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author:: Daniel Kahneman
## Highlights
> This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution. ([Location 204](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=204))
> Nassim Taleb, the author of The Black Swan. ([Location 226](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=226))
> The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness. ([Location 334](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=334))
> One of the tasks of System 2 is to overcome the impulses of System 1. In other words, System 2 is in charge of self-control. ([Location 374](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=374))
> Because System 1 operates automatically and cannot be turned off at will, errors of intuitive thought are often difficult to prevent. ([Location 402](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=402))
> The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high. The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own. ([Location 406](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=406))
> Unlike cognitive load, ego depletion is at least in part a loss of motivation. After exerting self-control in one task, you do not feel like making an effort in another, although you could do it if you really had to. ([Location 646](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=646))
> when System 2 is otherwise engaged, we will believe almost anything. ([Location 1328](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1328))
> The procedure I adopted to tame the halo effect conforms to a general principle: decorrelate error! ([Location 1384](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1384))
> To derive the most useful information from multiple sources of evidence, you should always try to make these sources independent of each other. ([Location 1393](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1393))
> The standard practice of open discussion gives too much weight to the opinions of those who speak early and assertively, causing others to line up behind them. ([Location 1401](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1401))
> Take note of what you did not do as you briefly thought of Mindik as a leader. You did not start by asking, “What would I need to know before I formed an opinion about the quality of someone’s leadership?” ([Location 1415](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1415))
> it is an anchoring effect. It occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. ([Location 1941](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1941))
> For example, the anchoring effect is reduced or eliminated when the second mover focuses his attention on the minimal offer that the opponent would accept, or on the costs to the opponent of failing to reach an agreement. In general, a strategy of deliberately “thinking the opposite” may be a good defense against anchoring effects, because it negates the biased recruitment of thoughts that produces these effects. ([Location 2076](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2076))
> An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events, which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. ([Location 2340](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2340))
> Terrorism speaks directly to System 1. ([Location 2380](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2380))
> Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence. ([Location 2554](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2554))
> probability judgments were higher for the richer and more detailed scenario, contrary to logic. This is a trap for forecasters and their clients: adding detail to scenarios makes them more persuasive, but less likely to come true. ([Location 2639](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2639))
> Intuition governs judgments in the between-subjects condition; logic rules in joint evaluation. ([Location 2725](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2725))
> It is useful to remember, however, that neglecting valid stereotypes inevitably results in suboptimal judgments. ([Location 2806](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2806))
> The point to remember is that the change from the first to the second jump does not need a causal explanation. It is a mathematically inevitable consequence of the fact that luck played a role in the outcome of the first jump. Not a very satisfactory story—we would all prefer a causal account—but that is all there is. ([Location 2981](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2981))
---
Title: Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Tags: readwise, books
date: 2024-01-30
---
# Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author:: Daniel Kahneman
## AI-Generated Summary
None
## Highlights
> This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution. ([Location 204](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=204))
> Nassim Taleb, the author of The Black Swan. ([Location 226](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=226))
> The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness. ([Location 334](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=334))
> One of the tasks of System 2 is to overcome the impulses of System 1. In other words, System 2 is in charge of self-control. ([Location 374](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=374))
> Because System 1 operates automatically and cannot be turned off at will, errors of intuitive thought are often difficult to prevent. ([Location 402](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=402))
> The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high. The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own. ([Location 406](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=406))
> Unlike cognitive load, ego depletion is at least in part a loss of motivation. After exerting self-control in one task, you do not feel like making an effort in another, although you could do it if you really had to. ([Location 646](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=646))
> when System 2 is otherwise engaged, we will believe almost anything. ([Location 1328](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1328))
> The procedure I adopted to tame the halo effect conforms to a general principle: decorrelate error! ([Location 1384](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1384))
> To derive the most useful information from multiple sources of evidence, you should always try to make these sources independent of each other. ([Location 1393](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1393))
> The standard practice of open discussion gives too much weight to the opinions of those who speak early and assertively, causing others to line up behind them. ([Location 1401](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1401))
> Take note of what you did not do as you briefly thought of Mindik as a leader. You did not start by asking, “What would I need to know before I formed an opinion about the quality of someone’s leadership?” ([Location 1415](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1415))
> it is an anchoring effect. It occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. ([Location 1941](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1941))
> For example, the anchoring effect is reduced or eliminated when the second mover focuses his attention on the minimal offer that the opponent would accept, or on the costs to the opponent of failing to reach an agreement. In general, a strategy of deliberately “thinking the opposite” may be a good defense against anchoring effects, because it negates the biased recruitment of thoughts that produces these effects. ([Location 2076](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2076))
> An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events, which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. ([Location 2340](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2340))
> Terrorism speaks directly to System 1. ([Location 2380](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2380))
> Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence. ([Location 2554](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2554))
> probability judgments were higher for the richer and more detailed scenario, contrary to logic. This is a trap for forecasters and their clients: adding detail to scenarios makes them more persuasive, but less likely to come true. ([Location 2639](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2639))
> Intuition governs judgments in the between-subjects condition; logic rules in joint evaluation. ([Location 2725](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2725))
> It is useful to remember, however, that neglecting valid stereotypes inevitably results in suboptimal judgments. ([Location 2806](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2806))
> The point to remember is that the change from the first to the second jump does not need a causal explanation. It is a mathematically inevitable consequence of the fact that luck played a role in the outcome of the first jump. Not a very satisfactory story—we would all prefer a causal account—but that is all there is. ([Location 2981](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=2981))
## New highlights added June 25, 2025 at 10:55 PM
> When we think of ourselves, we identify with System 2, the conscious, reasoning self that has beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and what to do. Although System 2 believes itself to be where the action is, the automatic System 1 is the hero of the book. I describe System 1 as effortlessly originating impressions and feelings that are the main sources of the explicit beliefs and deliberate choices of System 2. The automatic operations of System 1 generate surprisingly complex patterns of ideas, but only the slower System 2 can construct thoughts in an orderly series of steps. ([Location 279](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=279))
## New highlights added June 26, 2025 at 5:36 PM
> System 2 has some ability to change the way System 1 works, by programming the normally automatic functions of attention and memory. ([Location 311](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=311))
> In all these cases, you are asked to do something that does not come naturally, and you will find that the consistent maintenance of a set requires continuous exertion of at least some effort. ([Location 315](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=315))
> The often-used phrase “pay attention” is apt: you dispose of a limited budget of attention that you can allocate to activities, and if you try to go beyond your budget, you will fail. It is the mark of effortful activities that they interfere with each other, which is why it is difficult or impossible to conduct several at once. ([Location 316](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=316))
> In summary, most of what you (your System 2) think and do originates in your System 1, but System 2 takes over when things get difficult, and it normally has the last word. ([Location 349](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=349))
> You have chosen to believe the measurement, but you cannot prevent System 1 from doing its thing; you cannot decide to see the lines as equal, although you know they are. To resist the illusion, there is only one thing you can do: you must learn to mistrust your impressions of the length of lines when fins are attached to them. ([Location 384](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=384))
## New highlights added June 26, 2025 at 8:36 PM
> As you become skilled in a task, its demand for energy diminishes. ([Location 523](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=523))
> A crucial capability of System 2 is the adoption of “task sets”: it can program memory to obey an instruction that overrides habitual responses. ([Location 546](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=546))
> Time pressure is another driver of effort. ([Location 562](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=562))
> The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast. ([Location 566](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=566))
## New highlights added June 29, 2025 at 10:43 PM
> People who experience flow describe it as “a state of effortless concentration so deep that they lose their sense of time, of themselves, of their problems,” and their descriptions of the joy of that state are so compelling that Csikszentmihalyi has called it an “optimal experience.” ([Location 608](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=608))
> People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations. ([Location 620](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=620))
> if you have had to force yourself to do something, you are less willing or less able to exert self-control when the next challenge comes around. The phenomenon has been named ego depletion. ([Location 629](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=629))
## New highlights added June 30, 2025 at 10:18 AM
> Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed. ([Location 713](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=713))
Note: [[Caching]]
## New highlights added June 30, 2025 at 2:29 PM
> In An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, published in 1748, the Scottish philosopher David Hume reduced the principles of association to three: resemblance, contiguity in time and place, and causality. ([Location 810](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=810))
> Psychologists think of ideas as nodes in a vast network, called associative memory, in which each idea is linked to many others. There are different types of links: causes are linked to their effects (virus cold); things to their properties (lime green); things to the categories to which they belong (banana fruit). ([Location 814](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=814))
> This remarkable priming phenomenon—the influencing of an action by the idea—is known as the ideomotor effect. ([Location 851](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=851))
> Reciprocal links are common in the associative network. For example, being amused tends to make you smile, and smiling tends to make you feel amused. ([Location 859](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=859))
## New highlights added June 30, 2025 at 4:58 PM
> The general theme of these findings is that the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others. ([Location 891](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=891))
> Evidently, a purely symbolic reminder of being watched prodded people into improved behavior. ([Location 928](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=928))
### 5 Cognitive Ease
> A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. ([Location 1002](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1002))
Note: [[Gaslighting]]
> if your message is to be printed, use high-quality paper to maximize the contrast between characters and their background. If you use color, you are more likely to be believed if your text is printed in bright blue or red than in middling shades of green, yellow, or pale blue. ([Location 1015](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1015))
> On the one hand, cognitive strain is experienced when the effortful operations of System 2 are engaged. On the other hand, the experience of cognitive strain, whatever its source, tends to mobilize System 2, shifting people’s approach to problems from a casual intuitive mode to a more engaged and analytic mode. ([Location 1046](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1046))
> You read this correctly: performance was better with the bad font. Cognitive strain, whatever its source, mobilizes System 2, which is more likely to reject the intuitive answer suggested by System 1. ([Location 1060](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1060))
> As we saw in figure 5, repetition induces cognitive ease and a comforting feeling of familiarity. The famed psychologist Robert Zajonc dedicated much of his career to the study of the link between the repetition of an arbitrary stimulus and the mild affection that people eventually have for it. Zajonc called it the mere exposure effect. ([Location 1071](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1071))
> The mere exposure effect does not depend on the conscious experience of familiarity. In fact, the effect does not depend on consciousness at all: it occurs even when the repeated words or pictures are shown so quickly that the observers never become aware of having seen them. They still end up liking the words or pictures that were presented more frequently. As should be clear by now, System 1 can respond to impressions of events of which System 2 is unaware. Indeed, the mere exposure effect is actually stronger for stimuli that the individual never consciously sees. ([Location 1083](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1083))
> Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition. ([Location 1122](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1122))
> These findings add to the growing evidence that good mood, intuition, creativity, gullibility, and increased reliance on System 1 form a cluster. At the other pole, sadness, vigilance, suspicion, an analytic approach, and increased effort also go together. A happy mood loosens the control of System 2 over performance: when in a good mood, people become more intuitive and more creative but also less vigilant and more prone to logical errors. Here again, as in the mere exposure effect, the connection makes biological sense. A good mood is a signal that things are generally going well, the environment is safe, and it is all right to let one’s guard down. A bad mood indicates that things are not going very well, there may be a threat, and vigilance is required. Cognitive ease is both a cause and a consequence of a pleasant feeling. ([Location 1122](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1122))
### 6 Norms, Surprises, and Causes
## New highlights added July 8, 2025 at 12:19 PM
> The main function of System 1 is to maintain and update a model of your personal world, which represents what is normal in it. The model is constructed by associations that link ideas of circumstances, events, actions, and outcomes that co-occur with some regularity, either at the same time or within a relatively short interval. As these links are formed and strengthened, the pattern of associated ideas comes to represent the structure of events in your life, and it determines your interpretation of the present as well as your expectations of the future. ([Location 1160](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1160))
> System 1, which understands language, has access to norms of categories, which specify the range of plausible values as well as the most typical cases. ([Location 1219](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1219))
> We are evidently ready from birth to have impressions of causality, which do not depend on reasoning about patterns of causation. They are products of System 1. ([Location 1253](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1253))
#### 7 A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
> Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to collect more information. ([Location 1294](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1294))
> When uncertain, System 1 bets on an answer, and the bets are guided by experience. The rules of the betting are intelligent: recent events and the current context have the most weight in determining an interpretation. When no recent event comes to mind, more distant memories govern. ([Location 1309](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1309))
> System 1 does not keep track of alternatives that it rejects, or even of the fact that there were alternatives. Conscious doubt is not in the repertoire of System 1; it requires maintaining incompatible interpretations in mind at the same time, which demands mental effort. Uncertainty and doubt are the domain of System 2. ([Location 1313](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1313))
> The tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person—including things you have not observed—is known as the halo effect. ([Location 1340](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1340))
> The principle of independent judgments (and decorrelated errors) has immediate applications for the conduct of meetings, an activity in which executives in organizations spend a great deal of their working days. A simple rule can help: before an issue is discussed, all members of the committee should be asked to write a very brief summary of their position. This procedure makes good use of the value of the diversity of knowledge and opinion in the group. ([Location 1398](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1398))
> Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so important to an understanding of intuitive thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will use a cumbersome abbreviation for it: WYSIATI, which stands for what you see is all there is. System 1 is radically insensitive to both the quality and the quantity of the information that gives rise to impressions and intuitions. ([Location 1423](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1423))
#### 8 How Judgments Happen
## New highlights added July 8, 2025 at 12:19 PM
> The main function of System 1 is to maintain and update a model of your personal world, which represents what is normal in it. The model is constructed by associations that link ideas of circumstances, events, actions, and outcomes that co-occur with some regularity, either at the same time or within a relatively short interval. As these links are formed and strengthened, the pattern of associated ideas comes to represent the structure of events in your life, and it determines your interpretation of the present as well as your expectations of the future. ([Location 1160](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1160))
> System 1, which understands language, has access to norms of categories, which specify the range of plausible values as well as the most typical cases. ([Location 1219](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1219))
> We are evidently ready from birth to have impressions of causality, which do not depend on reasoning about patterns of causation. They are products of System 1. ([Location 1253](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1253))
#### 7 A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
> Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to collect more information. ([Location 1294](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1294))
> When uncertain, System 1 bets on an answer, and the bets are guided by experience. The rules of the betting are intelligent: recent events and the current context have the most weight in determining an interpretation. When no recent event comes to mind, more distant memories govern. ([Location 1309](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1309))
> System 1 does not keep track of alternatives that it rejects, or even of the fact that there were alternatives. Conscious doubt is not in the repertoire of System 1; it requires maintaining incompatible interpretations in mind at the same time, which demands mental effort. Uncertainty and doubt are the domain of System 2. ([Location 1313](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1313))
> The tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person—including things you have not observed—is known as the halo effect. ([Location 1340](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1340))
> The principle of independent judgments (and decorrelated errors) has immediate applications for the conduct of meetings, an activity in which executives in organizations spend a great deal of their working days. A simple rule can help: before an issue is discussed, all members of the committee should be asked to write a very brief summary of their position. This procedure makes good use of the value of the diversity of knowledge and opinion in the group. ([Location 1398](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1398))
> Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so important to an understanding of intuitive thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will use a cumbersome abbreviation for it: WYSIATI, which stands for what you see is all there is. System 1 is radically insensitive to both the quality and the quantity of the information that gives rise to impressions and intuitions. ([Location 1423](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1423))
#### 8 How Judgments Happen
## New highlights added July 12, 2025 at 9:11 PM
> the control over intended computations is far from precise: we often compute much more than we want or need. I call this excess computation the mental shotgun. ([Location 1573](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1573))
#### 9 Answering an Easier Question
> The target question is the assessment you intend to produce. The heuristic question is the simpler question that you answer instead. ([Location 1611](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1611))
> The technical definition of heuristic is a simple procedure that helps find adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions. ([Location 1613](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1613))
> The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved. The psychologist Paul Slovic has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling. ([Location 1700](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1700))
> Characteristics of System 1 generates impressions, feelings, and inclinations; when endorsed by System 2 these become beliefs, attitudes, and intentions operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary control can be programmed by System 2 to mobilize attention when a particular pattern is detected (search) executes skilled responses and generates skilled intuitions, after adequate training creates a coherent pattern of activated ideas in associative memory links a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, pleasant feelings, and reduced vigilance distinguishes the surprising from the normal infers and invents causes and intentions neglects ambiguity and suppresses doubt is biased to believe and confirm exaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect) focuses on existing evidence and ignores absent evidence (WYSIATI) generates a limited set of basic assessments represents sets by norms and prototypes, does not integrate matches intensities across scales (e.g., size to loudness) computes more than intended (mental shotgun) sometimes substitutes an easier question for a difficult one (heuristics) is more sensitive to changes than to states (prospect theory)* overweights low probabilities* shows diminishing sensitivity to quantity (psychophysics)* responds more strongly to losses than to gains (loss aversion)* frames decision problems narrowly, in isolation from one another* ([Location 1730](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1730))
### Part 2 Heuristics and Biases
#### 10 The Law of Small Numbers
## New highlights added July 18, 2025 at 3:09 PM
> extreme outcomes (both high and low) are more likely to be found in small than in large samples. This explanation is not causal. The small population of a county neither causes nor prevents cancer; it merely allows the incidence of cancer to be much higher (or much lower) than it is in the larger population. The deeper truth is that there is nothing to explain. The incidence of cancer is not truly lower or higher than normal in a county with a small population, it just appears to be so in a particular year because of an accident of sampling. ([Location 1783](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1783))
> The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story: we are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see. ([Location 1850](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1850))
#### 11 Anchors
> Nick Epley and Tom Gilovich found evidence that adjustment is a deliberate attempt to find reasons to move away from the anchor: people who are instructed to shake their head when they hear the anchor, as if they rejected it, move farther from the anchor, and people who nod their head show enhanced anchoring. Epley and Gilovich also confirmed that adjustment is an effortful operation. People adjust less (stay closer to the anchor) when their mental resources are depleted, either because their memory is loaded with digits or because they are slightly drunk. Insufficient adjustment is a failure of a weak or lazy System 2. ([Location 1978](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B00555X8OA&location=1978))
## New highlights added July 22, 2025 at 4:17 PM
#### 12 The Science of Availability